BEA released March 2026 PCE this morning. Headline PCE +0.7% MoM / +3.5% YoY (vs Feb 2.8%); core PCE +0.3% MoM / +3.2% YoY (vs Feb 3.0%). Both lines hit consensus. Goods +1.4% MoM / +0.7% YoY (durable goods now inflationary, energy lifting non-durable); services +0.3% MoM / +2.8% YoY. 10-Year UST eased ~4 bps to 4.40% on the print after closing at 4.42% post-FOMC ([BEA](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026), [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/march-2026-pce-inflation), [CME](https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/04/30/10-year-treasury-note-futures-rally-as-inflation-data-meets-expe.html), [YCharts](https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate)).
"In-line" doesn't mean dovish. Headline at 3.5% is the highest YoY since mid-2023 and confirms the Fed's hawkish edit yesterday. CNBC framing: a hot upside surprise would have pushed 10Y toward 4.50%. With FOMC voting 8-4 to hold and dropping the "moderating" language, 2026 cuts now get pushed to back-half at earliest; debt cost on a new 10Y industrial loan stays in the 5.85-6.05% range (UST + ~145-165 spread). For acquisitions underwriting, base-case exit cap rates should hold flat to up 10-15 bps from entry through 2027.
If pencilling deals this week, anchor base-case 10Y at 4.30-4.40%; stress at 4.65%. Refi advisory: clients with 2026 maturities should lock; floating-rate borrowers benefit from SOFR holding 3.65% but with no near-term cut catalyst, 5-yr IO fixed at 5.65-5.85% remains the smarter swap.
Cushman & Wakefield Q1 2026 Charlotte MarketBeat: overall vacancy fell to 7.7% (from 8.7% Q1 2025), 2.7M SF YTD net absorption. Airport submarket vacancy collapsed 410 bps QoQ as tenants chased infill. Gaston County (where TCA-Mortenson West Pointe / Lakemont sits) dropped 220 bps QoQ and 840 bps from Q2 2025's 20-year high. Big-box leasing dominated Q1; pipeline still building ([C&W Q1 Charlotte](https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/industrial/charlotte_americas_marketbeat_industrial_q12026.pdf?rev=4e68d5ce0dfe4a76be87e98468bf9f0e), [C&W Beneath the Surface](https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/beneath-the-surface-decoding-charlottes-industrial-vacancy)).
C&W's 7.7% reads tighter than CBRE's 7.3% Q1 print only at first glance - the gap is methodology (sublease, building inclusion). The signal is consistent: Charlotte is past the vacancy peak. The Airport / Gaston tightening is direct read-through to TCA's portfolio - West Pointe and Lakemont sit in exactly the submarkets posting the largest QoQ vacancy declines. Combined with Matthews' sub-125K SF read (5.8% vacancy / $10.63 PSF), Charlotte bifurcation: shallow-bay tight, big-box absorbing fast, mid-size still balancing.
Use the Airport -410 bps QoQ data point in TCA's TPV/Lakemont leasing memos and IC updates; that's a defensible mark-up in modeled occupancy and lease-up timing. For client acquisitions targeting Airport / Gaston, consider stretching offer pricing 25-50 bps cap inside year-end 2025 marks - the supply story has clearly inflected.
Kansas City-based NorthPoint Development closed Fund VII with $1.565B equity ($1.265B direct commitments + $300M co-invest) - well past the $1B initial target. Fund is already 40% deployed into 17.3 MSF across 14 US markets. NorthPoint signals a "generational buying opportunity" thesis from forced sellers, projecting $4B total acquisitions ([Ingram's](https://ingrams.com/article/northpoint-closes-1-5-billion-fund-for-industrial-investment/), [PERE](https://www.perenews.com/northpoint-development-closes-its-largest-fund-to-date/), [NorthPoint LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/northpoint-development_we-are-proud-to-announce-the-successful-closing-activity-7442948186534674433-Ql0G)).
Adds another large dedicated industrial buyer to a thinning bid stack. Combined with IP Capital Partners SEIF II ($250M target / $300M cap / ~$1B purchasing power, Southeast focus, $15-50M middle-market), Brookfield's $1.2B Peakstone take-private (60 IOS + 16 industrial), and Hines HGIT's ongoing acquisition cadence (Savannah / Spartanburg), capital is back. NorthPoint is a less common dance partner in the Carolinas to date, but with $4B to deploy and a "forced seller" thesis, expect bids on Carolinas / Georgia stabilized big-box - likely competing directly with Stonemont, Bridge, Dermody, and Hines on quality 250-500K SF deals.
For TCA dispositions in 2026: add NorthPoint to the bidder universe on Charlotte / RDU / Savannah marketing campaigns. They tend to bid aggressive on stabilized, multi-market portfolios with credit tenancy. Track their first Carolinas placements out of Fund VII - any Charlotte / Savannah print sets new comps for cap rates.