Savannah Q1 2026: 7.1 MSF absorption -- best print since the cycle peak; pipeline collapses to 3.8 MSF
What happened: SEDA / Colliers Q1 2026 Savannah industrial report, posted late April, shows 7.1 MSF of net absorption -- driven by Hyundai Metaplant Phase 2 (5.0 MSF build-to-suit, fully absorbed) and Whirlpool's 1.1 MSF lease at Central Port Logistics Center (Bldg. 1). Q1 leasing reached 2.45 MSF across 24 transactions, more than double Q4. Under construction collapsed to 3.8 MSF across 19 buildings (down from 9.5 MSF Q4) ([SEDA / Colliers Q1 2026](https://seda.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Savannah-Industrial-Report-2026Q1.pdf), [CBRE Savannah Q1](https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/savannah-industrial-figures-q1-2026)).
Why it matters: Savannah is the SE poster child for absorption-led recovery. The 1 MSF Whirlpool deal is the first +1 MSF transaction in the market since Q1 2023, and CBRE flagged "renewed attention to the upper end" with several other bulk requirements active. Pipeline contraction (-60% QoQ) means deliveries through 2026 will largely be absorbed-as-built. Direct read across to Charleston (also bulk-tightening per CBRE Q1) and to TCA's Carolinas big-box positioning.
Suggested action: Reach out to Capital Development Partners and Peachtree Group (the latter just bought Dorchester Commerce Park Bldg 3, 594,552 SF for $78.5M -- a fresh comp). Refresh the Savannah / Lowcountry watch-list with a focus on bulk land-bank holders; structure forward-purchase optionality on stabilized big-box assets that may transact into a tightening market over the next 12-18 months.
Greenville-Spartanburg Q1 2026: vacancy drops to 7.6% (from 9.1% YoY), rents flat at $5.99 PSF
What happened: Cushman & Wakefield Q1 2026 Greenville-Spartanburg market beat: total inventory 258.3M SF; overall vacancy 7.6% (down 150 bps YoY from 9.1%); direct asking rents flat at $5.99/SF, $6.16 ex-Cherokee (up $0.16 YoY). Q1 leasing 1.65 MSF; under construction 3.9 MSF; quarterly net absorption 84,078 SF, with deliveries 177,617 SF ([C&W Q1 2026 Greenville-Spartanburg](https://assets.cushmanwakefield.com/-/media/cw/marketbeat-pdfs/2026/q1/us-reports/industrial/greenville-spartanburg_americas_marketbeat_industrial_q12026.pdf)).
Why it matters: The 150-bp vacancy improvement -- with rents holding flat rather than falling -- signals supply discipline is working in G/S. UC at 3.9 MSF is the lowest since 2020 and far below the 9.5 MSF that Savannah just digested. The Cherokee submarket is still working through overhang, but the I-85 Greer / Duncan / Spartanburg core is now meaningfully tighter, supporting modest rent growth into H2 2026.
Suggested action: Run a development-pipeline overlay across G/S, Charlotte and Charleston to identify which submarkets enter 2027 with sub-3% UC-to-inventory. G/S core (ex-Cherokee) likely qualifies. Refresh TCA's I-85 spec underwriting; consider reactivating land-banked sites in Greer / Duncan that were paused in 2024.
Richmond Q1 2026: vacancy +120 bps QoQ to 5.6%; UC nearly quadruples YoY to 11.5 MSF
What happened: CBRE Richmond Q1 2026: vacancy up 120 bps QoQ (and 220 bps YoY) to 5.6%; availability 6.2%; net absorption -207K SF (steady from -222K Q4 but a sharp reversal from +629K Q1 2025); under construction surged to 11.5 MSF (vs 3.0 MSF Q1 2025); quarterly deliveries 1.4 MSF (vs 104K Q4). Pricing remained resilient. Thalhimer / C&W: warehouse rents +5.5% YoY; Class A asking $9 PSF range, with new construction trending higher ([CBRE Richmond Q1](https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/richmond-industrial-figures-q1-2026), [Thalhimer / C&W](https://thalhimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Richmond_Americas_Alliance_MarketBeat_Industrial_Q1_2026.pdf)).
Why it matters: Richmond is now the SE outlier in the wrong direction -- vacancy and UC-to-inventory both moving up while rents hold. The 11.5 MSF UC pipeline (about 4-5% of total inventory by C&W ratio) is heavy supply set to deliver into a softer demand environment, especially in Class B/C second-gen space. Pricing power is real for Class A trophy product, but mid-bay and B/C product likely see effective-rent compression for 2-3 quarters. Risk for any TCA Richmond exposure -- and a potential deep-value opportunity for capital with a 24-36 month hold.
Suggested action: Build a Richmond Class A trophy vs Class B/C value-add framework. Selectively shop bid lists for distressed B/C product trading above 7.5% cap; pre-position equity for late-2026 / early-2027 distress vintage. On the Class A side, defend / push asking rents on TCA-controlled product near Henrico / Hanover while pipeline is still mostly land or shell.
BOn My Radar
10Y UST closed 4.36% on May 6 (FRED DGS10), -7 bps from 4.43% on May 5 -- biggest single-day drop since FOMC week. Range now 4.36-4.45% over the past 10 sessions ([FRED DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)).
BLS releases April nonfarm payrolls today at 8:30 AM ET (March prior +178K, U/E 4.3%). Robinhood Kalshi market cluster pricing +110-130K consensus ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)).
Charleston Q1 2026 (CBRE figures): industrial availability moved lower; modest progress following an extended period of elevated vacancy. Bulk segment beginning to tighten ([CBRE Charleston Q1](https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/charleston-industrial-figures-q1-2026), [JLL Charleston Q1](https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/market-dynamics/charleston-industrial)).
Durham approved a 60-day data-center moratorium May 4. The Durham vote follows Apex / Wendell / Orange / Rowan / Swain; Cumberland County hearing tonight May 13 ([WRAL](https://www.wral.com/news/local/durham-city-council-data-center-meeting-may-2026/)).
Peachtree Group bought Dorchester Commerce Park Bldg 3 (594,552 SF, Midway GA / Hwy 21) for $78.5M -- fresh Savannah-corridor institutional bulk comp ([SEDA / Colliers Q1](https://seda.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Savannah-Industrial-Report-2026Q1.pdf)).
Stonemont continues building the ISF (industrial service facility) platform: five-asset Q4 close (41.93 acres, 518,600 SF) plus Denver/Las Vegas pair in Feb. ISF remains a niche where Stonemont has first-mover scale ([Stonemont Feb](https://stonemontfinancial.com/stonemont-expands-isf-platform-with-two-acquisitions/)).
Beacon Partners' 150,515 SF spec at 13021 General Drive (SW Charlotte) is set to deliver this month -- direct competitor to EGP's just-started Skyway 3 ([Beacon Partners](https://beacondevelopment.com/news/beacon-partners-breaks-ground-on-charlotte-development)).
CTrends to Watch
Three-speed Southeast: Savannah is the absorption leader (+7.1 MSF Q1, contracting pipeline); Greenville-Spartanburg is in supply-discipline recovery (vac -150 bps, rents flat); Richmond is the outlier with +120 bps vacancy and UC quadrupling. The dispersion is the widest the SE has shown in three years and should drive submarket-specific underwriting rather than regional templates.
Bulk re-engagement: Whirlpool 1.1 MSF in Savannah was the first +1 MSF lease since Q1 2023. CBRE flagged additional bulk requirements active. If even one more $50M+ bulk deal prints in Charleston or Savannah this quarter, the bid for Class A coastal big-box steps up materially.
Rate window opening: 10Y at 4.36% (May 6) is the lowest in three weeks. Combined with KBRA's $183B 2026 CMBS forecast and Trepp's $32.74B Q1 print, the Q2 / Q3 financing window for stabilized industrial is the cleanest in 18 months. ATM equity costs at the public REITs (TRNO $64.85, EGP, FR all active in 2026 Q1) compete with debt for incremental capital.
NC moratorium map widens further: Durham's 60-day pause adds a major Triangle municipality to the moratorium list. Cumberland County hearing tonight. The 2024 NC down-zoning law's vested-rights protection is the principal counterweight to a fully closed map -- worth tracking closely.
DIdeas & Opportunities
Richmond Class B/C distress watchlist: Build a target list of 1995-2010 vintage 100K-300K SF Class B/C product trading at 7.5%+ caps. Pre-position 24-36 month value-add equity to acquire mid-2026 through 2027 as the 11.5 MSF UC delivers and second-gen B/C softens further. Avoid Class A trophy chase -- pricing is sticky.
I-85 Greer/Duncan reactivation: With G/S vacancy down to 7.6% and UC at the lowest level since 2020, dust off paused TCA / partner land-bank sites and underwrite a Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 spec start. Target 200K-400K SF rear-load product, 32' clear, 60' speed bays.
Savannah forward-purchase optionality: With UC down to 3.8 MSF and absorption running at 7 MSF/quarter, stabilized assets become scarce-supply. Approach Capital Development Partners, Hines and other Savannah-corridor developers about forward-purchase / forward-take structures on 2026/2027 deliveries before the bid market widens.
GBackground -- already covered this week
Invesco Real Estate buys Gateway One West Columbia SC, 252,720 SF fully leased (May 7).
EastGroup begins Skyway 3 Charlotte construction (156K SF, $20.4M) (May 7).
NC moratoriums: Orange / Rowan / Swain late April; five towns have moratoriums in 2026 (May 7).