TCA Morning RE Brief

Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | FOMC Decision Day -- Warsh first meeting
SOFR
3.65%
10-Yr UST
4.44%
Fed Funds
3.50-3.75%
Core PCE
3.3%
Natl Ind. Vacancy
7.5%
Ind. Cap Rate
6.44%

ATop Stories

FOMC June 17 -- Warsh's First Meeting, Statement 2:00pm / Presser 2:30pm ET

What Happened

The FOMC concludes today under new Chair Kevin Warsh (sworn in May 22, confirmed 54-45). CME FedWatch shows 97% probability of a hold at 3.50-3.75%, the fifth consecutive meeting unchanged. Updated SEP and dot plot release at 2:00 pm; first Warsh press conference at 2:30 pm. Pre-decision 10Y at 4.439% (CNBC); 2Y at 4.056%. Bank of America's Aditya Bhave flags that at least three of 12 voting members may pencil in 2026 hikes; Goldman and JPMorgan now expect the median first-cut dot to shift into 2027 (Findex). CNBC also reports Warsh is expected to withhold or de-emphasize his own dot, breaking with prior chairs (CNBC).

Why It Matters

This is a communication-driven event, not a rate event. The base case (easing bias removed, neutral language, dot plot trims 2026 cuts to zero) keeps 10Y in a 4.40-4.55% consolidation per Investing.com's Morgan Stanley framework. A material shock requires the dot plot to project a hike rather than just remove cuts -- which would push 10Y toward 4.65-4.75% and reprice 2Y above 4.35% (Investing.com). December hike odds already sit at ~42% (CME) to 74% (AInvest dealer survey). Industrial CMBS 10Y fixed loan rates currently at 6.32-7.26% / 75% LTV (SelectCommercial) -- any hawkish surprise adds another 15-25 bps to acquisition financing on top of the existing ~30 bps negative-leverage gap.

Suggested Action

Live-monitor 2:00pm statement language for "easing bias" removal and any "balance sheet recalibration" reference. Hold any pricing decisions on Charlotte / Charleston / Savannah underwriting until 3:00pm to capture initial 10Y/2Y reaction. Update bid letters out today with a 4.45-4.65% 10Y sensitivity band rather than a single point estimate.

Sanders Equities Acquires 737K SF Savannah Portfolio from Prologis for $75.1M

What Happened

Jericho NY-based Sanders Equities closed on a five-building, 51.69-acre infill industrial portfolio in Savannah's Dean Forest submarket for $75.1M (~$102/SF), purchased from Prologis. The Portside V Portfolio is 100% leased to five logistics and distribution tenants; addresses include 318 Grange Rd (195K SF), 190 Gulfstream Rd (175K SF), 198 Gulfstream Rd (150K SF), 405 Expansion Blvd (116K SF), and 194 Gulfstream Rd (100.8K SF). All buildings sit 0.5 to 3.6 miles from Garden City Terminal -- the largest single-terminal container facility in North America -- with direct I-16 and I-95 access. Clear heights 21-28 ft, 62 dock-high doors, 8 drive-in doors, 109-162 ft truck courts, with 80% of properties including trailer parking or outdoor storage. JLL Southeast Capital Markets represented the seller; Sanders self-represented (Connect CRE, LIBN).

Why It Matters

This is the third major Savannah-Jacksonville-Lakeland Southeast trade in eight days following EQT Fund VI's $XYZ acquisition of a 2.4 MSF Brookfield portfolio (Morningstar) and Prologis's earlier Davie Business Center buy. Prologis is now visibly rotating capital out of secondary port-adjacent Sunbelt assets and into South Florida last-mile, while regional / mid-cap institutional buyers (Sanders, EQT, Dalfen) absorb the disposed Sunbelt logistics paper. The $102/SF print on fully leased, port-proximate, lower-clear-height (21-28 ft) infill is a clean comp -- below the $135-160/SF Class A modern-bulk Savannah trades, but inside replacement cost.

Suggested Action

Pull JLL Savannah Capital Markets team (John Huguenard, Trent Agnew) into the next TCA Savannah pipeline review; they've now repped both EQT (buy) and Prologis (sell) sides this month. Reset Savannah infill underwriting basis to $95-115/SF for older-vintage 21-28 ft clear with port proximity, separate from Class A modern bulk. Confirm whether Sanders is now an active competitor on TCA's port-adjacent target list (>1 MSF Savannah, growing fast).

Hines Plans 800K SF Industrial Park on Former Wolfspeed Durham Site

What Happened

Hines is planning an industrial park spanning roughly 800,000 SF to replace the failed Wolfspeed silicon-carbide manufacturing buildings in Durham NC (Triangle Business Journal). The site was previously entitled for advanced-manufacturing use following Wolfspeed's well-publicized financial restructuring.

Why It Matters

Adds ~800K SF of speculative-to-spec multi-tenant industrial supply to a Triangle submarket where the current pipeline has otherwise tightened post-Wolfspeed/Apple/Toyota cycle moderation. Durham/RTP industrial vacancy has been running 6.5-7.5% per recent Yardi and CoStar Triangle prints; this delivery (likely 2027-2028) is large enough to move submarket absorption math. Hines underwriting the conversion from purpose-built fab to multi-tenant industrial implies a confident view on Triangle 3PL / e-commerce / life-sciences-adjacent demand depth.

Suggested Action

Pull entitled-site comparables in RTP / Research Triangle Industrial corridor for Trinity's Q3 underwriting review. Confirm whether the Hines entitlement carries forward Wolfspeed-era incentive packages (state JDIG, county property tax abatements) -- those would be valuable transferable basis. Add Hines Triangle leadership to outreach list.

BOn My Radar

CTrends to Watch

Data center moratorium contagion accelerated this week. Surry County NC weighing 24-month freeze (BPR); Carroll County GA passed 100-day pause (Gradick); York County SC nine-month pause heading to second reading June 29 / final July 13 (WSOC); Asheville council votes June 26. Counter-signal: Mayodan NC adopted DC zoning rules and lifted its moratorium (Triad Business Journal). NC statewide moratorium remains unlikely per legislators despite SB 730 activity.
Prologis pattern: net seller in mid-Atlantic / Sunbelt port-adjacent, net buyer in S. FL last-mile. Savannah disposition (-737K SF, $75.1M) and Davie acquisition (+Davie Business Center) within four days. Pair with the earlier $352M Broward acquisition and the EQT Fund VI / Brookfield 2.4 MSF SE trade: Sunbelt secondary-port-adjacent Class B/C is being recycled out of large-cap REIT hands into pension-backed (OTPP/Equus, EQT) and private-mid-cap (Sanders, Dalfen, BKM) buyers.
Global hawkish-hold pre-FOMC. ECB +25bp to 2.25% (June 11), BoJ +25bp to 1.0% (June 16), Fed expected to remove easing bias today. Domestic 2Y at 4.05-4.15%, German 2Y Schatz at 2.68%, Japan 10Y JGB 2.61%. The cross-Atlantic curve repricing is feeding through to industrial cap rates with a 6.03% WA cap vs 6.33% CMBS coupon (CRED iQ) -- the smallest negative-leverage gap of any property type, but still negative.

DIdeas & Opportunities

Savannah port-adjacent infill comp: Sanders / Prologis $102/SF at 100% lease, 21-28 ft clear, Garden City Terminal proximity. Useful peg for any TCA Savannah port-adjacent acquisition or sale-leaseback model; tightens our basis assumption from the prior $95-130/SF range to $95-115/SF for similar vintage.
Equus + OTPP Richmond entry signals institutional Canadian pension appetite for VA logistics. Worth a direct outreach to Equus Capital Partners (TCA competitor list) -- if their JV with OTPP is open to additional Southeast deals, possible co-investment or sale-leaseback partner for the Richmond / Charleston / Charlotte portfolio.
Hines Durham 800K SF entitled site may carry forward Wolfspeed-era state/county incentive packages. If those transfer to a multi-tenant industrial use, it materially compresses the Triangle stabilized yield for the first tenant moving in. Worth a call to Hines Triangle to understand whether the JDIG / county abatement structure travels.

GBackground

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